On behalf of TedSport associates, DOS & McLEOD and the crew, Ted Hopkins has definitely said he's hung up the boots for 2018 in relation to live game KPIS and advice betting H2H, handicaps, and scoring.
Health was an issue and thankfully the recovery is good. But worse was because of the terrible connection of the agencies, government, and the AFL Heads to promote punters to lose money, while restricting punters who win.
Nevertheless, Hopkins is on the go. Yes, it can be recovery time, neutral, and some hibernation, but not static, please.
Maybe, AFL will be fired up next season. If so, overseas codes will be the main opportunities.
At least, let's have a go this season to compare the beginning futures market. Here are the opportunities.
While our top two (Adelaide & Sydney) are identical to the bookies' expectations, these clubs seem to have some value:
- Carlton. The public sees them as a bottom-end club, but their defensive strength and potential for development should get them out of the bottom four and up to ten wins. Worth a sizeable bet at Sportsbet to win more than 6.5 games, and at $6 to make the eight most places.
- Port Adelaide. Barely missed the top four, then recruited well in the off-season. Back them to win more than 13.5 games. Also take plenty of the $3 for top four and a little of $10 for premier/$11 for minor premier
- Collingwood. The punting public has given up on them after years of expecting a recovery. This year they will do it just on the back of their draw, because a bottom-six finish has gifted the Magpies a ride into contention this year. Small bet at about $2.10 to make the eight.
- North Melbourne. Didn't fall as far as most people thought in 2017 with some unlucky losses against a very nasty fixture. Not interested in losing for picks. Could bounce straight back into contention with a terrific draw. Take some $8 at Crownbet to make finals.
And here are the knocks:
- GWS. Injuries affected the end of 2017 but we've adjusted for that. Still don't play like a top team, worse than average for stopping opposition transit and are not communicating on the field when things go wrong. Lost some massive experience and young guns. In trouble. Go heavy on them to win less than 14.5 games, and we can get $4.50 on them missing the eight.
- Melbourne. We were enthusiastic about 2017 being their year of growth but they went backwards, rated 14th for kick quality and 16th for taking terrible attacking options in the last two months of the season. Under 12.5 wins for sure.
- Essendon. A reasonable team but the bookmakers seem to have them contending for top four on the back of recruiting stars like Devon Smith & Jesse Stringer. Our research says it takes a while to have an impact unless you're Paddy Dangerfield. Small bet to miss the eight at $2.05.