VOODOO AND HOME GRAND ADVANTAGE - GRAND FINAL

As DOS has pointed out in the BOX SEAT, the TedSport KPIS and algorithm ratings of the two grand finalist teams have grown close. The bank from R14 is now at an impressive 49.2% ROI. TedSport’s engagement with evaluating and predicting team performance, current and future, extends to analysis of the voodoo effect of a home ground advantage. 

Voodoo is a type of magic which can sometimes wield power, sometimes merely pretend to be powerful.

Our logistics stats and able commentator, McLeod, was at the MCG game and said; All of the media chatter at the G about the bye being a disadvantage was proven to be just dribble, with Adelaide and Richmond both bursting out of the blocks.

That’s voodoo. It’s obvious that the pre-final bye is sorcery crap provided by the cult marketing and sales of the AFL dummy minds. What wasn’t crap voodoo was the people’s power, generated by the home ground advantage. The intensity of feelings experienced at both the Adelaide Oval and the MCG supported the at-home teams, Crows and Tigers, winning a grand final berth. More measurable aspects of home ground advantage also demand consideration. 

On average it’s likely the home team can get a 10% scoring average. The percentage varies according to circumstances. First and foremost, is the home or away a good or poor team? How much travel is incurred by the home or away team? Climatic conditions? And above all but most elusive, what is the atmosphere and attitude among the players and their supporters dominating the home or away?  

The emotional pitch of each team’s supporters and their players will tell at the first bounce of the MCG grand final. Adelaide will no longer have the advantage of the home ground and Richmond will not be buoyed by an overwhelmingly vociferous Tiger army. The prelim finals of Adelaide and Richmond had significant voodoo advantages. Now, TedSport says the Crows v Tigers at the MCG will likely balance 50/50 on both accounts. 

It is possible, following their respective prelim final, that some of the players feel deflated. Coaches, media experts, and fans who reckon they know the minds of each player spin voodoo crap. Last season’s grand final resulted in the Bulldog’s win, defying the general expectation that, the Swans in quarters one and four would easily deflate the young Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Tedsport’s scoring rate and KPIS indicated the Bulldogs had a good chance of winning the flag. 

This season there are two aspects that could either go either way - climate and Rance. Travel will be much the same for both teams. (Adelaide will have a minor travel issue from airport to airport, under an hour, a trip the players are accustomed to.)

Wind, rain, and player congestion can have a significant influence on goal scoring rates. During the prelim finals the opportunist goal players were their team’s best   - Betts & Cameron for the Crows (7 goals) and Rioli & Himmelberg for the Tigers (8 goals). So far the weather promises to be reasonable but the player congestion will continue. Which means the goal opportunists are likely to have a good time. But why do Rance and his support team defenders appear to me so crucial?

During the prelim final the Giants were continually peppering their F50m zone. It was Rance and his defender mates who were repelling GWS goal chances and then rebounding into the Tiger’s attacking zone. The Crows will continue peppering goal opportunities and it will be Rance doing the repelling and rebounding again.

During Adelaide’s prelim final the entire Crows’ home ground advantage wiped out the Cats’ chances. We are not so sure they will do it again against the Tigers. TedSport expects a remarkable grand final a 50/50 split.

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