TedPost

LET'S HAVE A START FOR 2018 FUTURES

On behalf of TedSport associates, DOS & McLEOD and the crew, Ted Hopkins has definitely said he's hung up the boots for 2018 in relation to live game KPIS and advice betting H2H, handicaps, and scoring.

Health was an issue and thankfully the recovery is good. But worse was because of the terrible connection of the agencies, government, and the AFL Heads to promote punters to lose money, while restricting punters who win.

Nevertheless, Hopkins is on the go. Yes, it can be recovery time, neutral, and some hibernation, but not static, please.

Maybe, AFL will be fired up next season. If so, overseas codes will be the main opportunities.  

At least, let's have a go this season to compare the beginning futures market. Here are the opportunities.

While our top two (Adelaide & Sydney) are identical to the bookies' expectations, these clubs seem to have some value:

  • Carlton. The public sees them as a bottom-end club, but their defensive strength and potential for development should get them out of the bottom four and up to ten wins. Worth a sizeable bet at Sportsbet to win more than 6.5 games, and at $6 to make the eight most places.
  • Port Adelaide. Barely missed the top four, then recruited well in the off-season. Back them to win more than 13.5 games. Also take plenty of the $3 for top four and a little of $10 for premier/$11 for minor premier
  • Collingwood. The punting public has given up on them after years of expecting a recovery. This year they will do it just on the back of their draw, because a bottom-six finish has gifted the Magpies a ride into contention this year. Small bet at about $2.10 to make the eight.
  • North Melbourne. Didn't fall as far as most people thought in 2017 with some unlucky losses against a very nasty fixture. Not interested in losing for picks. Could bounce straight back into contention with a terrific draw. Take some $8 at Crownbet to make finals.

And here are the knocks:

  • GWS. Injuries affected the end of 2017 but we've adjusted for that. Still don't play like a top team, worse than average for stopping opposition transit and are not communicating on the field when things go wrong. Lost some massive experience and young guns. In trouble. Go heavy on them to win less than 14.5 games, and we can get $4.50 on them missing the eight.
  • Melbourne. We were enthusiastic about 2017 being their year of growth but they went backwards, rated 14th for kick quality and 16th for taking terrible attacking options in the last two months of the season. Under 12.5 wins for sure.
  • Essendon. A reasonable team but the bookmakers seem to have them contending for top four on the back of recruiting stars like Devon Smith & Jesse Stringer. Our research says it takes a while to have an impact unless you're Paddy Dangerfield. Small bet to miss the eight at $2.05.

A SHORT HISTORY OF RICHMOND CASTLE

TedSport acknowledges the 2017 grand final was, from a neutral perspective, a bit of a letdown, but otherwise an amazing performance from Mrs Hardwick's boys! They have now winched the black and yellow flag above the Richmond Castle.

The original Castle was founded in Yorkshire in the eleventh century after the Battle of Hastings. Since then this Norman Castle has been disputed over and despoiled before its restoration. How has the MCG Castle been restored to Richmond, Victoria?

Prior to and during WW2 there were five flags hoisted to the sovereign castles of the MCG and Richmond, including footy Barons, Earls, and Dukes such as Dan Minogue, ‘Checker’ Hughes, Percy Bentley, and Jack Dyer.

From 1967 to 1980 there were another five flags flying including more notables - Tom Hafey, and premiership players Royce Hart, Francis Bourke, and Kevin Bartlett.

It took 37 years of battles and despoilations before the quest of the black and yellow flag was honoured throughout the land. Their elite premiership players, Riewoldt and Houli were drafted 11 years ago, Cotchin and Rance ten, Martin and Astbury eight, and Vlastuiun five years ago.

The continual strife ended with an alliance built from 2010 to 2017. The Coach and Administer Gale together launched in 2010 and President O’Neal in 2014.

We see now it has taken Richmond somewhere between five to ten seasons of continual elite talent, backed by sound organisation, analysis, and some good luck to become a premiership team.

TedSport’s preview of the grand final was VOODOO AND HOME GRAND ADVANTAGE. The reason I chose ‘VOODOO’ is because it’s meaning can turn either way, to hope or despair.

The HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE is verifiable through analytical data. At the MCG it can be quelled by either team. In this GF, the volume and its intensity of the crowd greeting the team triumphed. The support for Richmond was extraordinary, and reaped both voodoo and home ground advantage.

My GF preview gave the best chance of winning the flag to Rance and his defensive Richmond Castle boys. Why did Rance and his support team defenders appear to me so crucial?

During the prelim final the Giants were continually peppering their F50m zone. It was Rance and his defender mates who were repelling GWS goal chances and then rebounding into the Tiger’s attacking zone.

I call him the ‘Richmond Duke’. His quality and consistency is obvious. The AFL Records say he has been selected in the All-Australian team four consecutive times, and is ‘undoubtedly the best defender in the game.’

From the TedSport KPIS perspective there were two essential indicators that Richmond managed to win throughout the season: the transit advantage #2 and F50m opportunities #2. The importance of these two indicators are based on TedSport’s fundamental principle; It ain’t no point winning the ball unless it is put to good effect.

The relationship of the transit advantage and the F50 entry opportunity pressure of the team can also go either way.

During the grand final, and especially in quarters one and two, the Crows kept pushing the ball into their attacking zone. And, yes, the Tigers kept repelling the ball.

But that’s only half the requirement. Rance & Houli and their teammates also kept rebounding to get their forwards best chances to goal, ensuring the black and yellow flag again flies high over Richmond Castle.

MCLEOD HAS SOMETHING TO SAY - GF REVIEW

McLeod says: GF was a bit of a letdown from a neutral perspective, but an amazing performance from Mrs. Hardwick's boys! Pre-game TedSport recommended NO BET until there was unusual noise. Before the bounce, the money started flowing into the Adelaide jar. Meanwhile, our stake calculator was saying the HTH honey bet was on the Tigers.

ADELAIDE V RICHMOND

Early in the week DOS pointed out that if you went by traditional stats, you wouldn’t back Richmond for the Grand Final. The Tigers average fewer disposals than their opponents, and don't hit the target with the ones they do take. In fact, just by counting these things, using the usual analysis, Richmond rates the second worst in the league for disposal ‘efficiency’.

We know this is crap. So TedSport grades each disposal by the amount of pressure it puts on the opposition, that crucial element missing in the yes/no hit-the-target dichotomy. Meanwhile Richmond in the past ten weeks has forced its opponents into more catastrophic kicks than any other club — those we rate as minus-two or minus-three. Richmond has taken over Adelaide's mantle of being the best disrupter of opposition ball movement. The Crows are a close second.

Swept up in the yellow & black song prefacing Saturday night, we upgraded the Tigers to a few points on their side of the bookies' line at +6.5, but were not recommending betting early in the week. Before the bounce, the stake calculator was recommending a sneaky flutter on the Tigers HTH.

It was a killer-opening couple of minutes for a Tiger, with some costly errors deep in defence contributing to a fast start for the ready Crows. Big ruckman Sam Jacobs was giving silver service to the Crow mids; he was especially effective in a couple of F50 stoppages, converted by the Crows into a couple of 1st quarter goals. At the first break it was the Crows who had the edge, with Laird especially impactful across HB and the Crouch bros on top in the middle.

Talk in media circles during the week focused on T. Lynch as the ‘connector’, but TedSport claimed the Tigers as the best ‘disruptors’ in the business. They lived up to their end of season form, as the usually efficient Crows were incapable of cleanly moving the ball into scoring positions. They were held to just their third goal-less quarter for the year. When Dusty shrugged off his Adelaide opponent for a great contested mark, duly converted, the Tigers went into the long break with the lead and all the momentum.

There was no let up from the Tigers in Q3, as they kicked the first three goals of the quarter to make it seven on the trot. And it was their ball use and ability to transition the ball with ease that was murdering the Crows. This full ground pressure meant that the slick Adelaide ball use displayed this season was nowhere to be seen. It was the Tigers who ended the game with a kick rating advantage of 52 while Adelaide failed to click their attacking game into gear.

Richmond’s ability to disrupt Adelaide’s ball movement made the difference in the game, Adelaide finishing a miserable -16 for transition, the Tigers at +15. The high scoring Crows were held to their lowest score for the season, with Rance and Houli controlling the back half from where they launched many of Richmond’s attacking forays.

The game was over as a contest at 3Q time, and when Jack Riewoldt marked strongly in the F50 and converted for the first goal of Q4, it was officially Tiger Time. Long suffering Richmond fans were able to experience football nirvana with impromptu renditions of the theme song and the famous ‘yellow & black’ chant echoing around the famous stadium all through the final quarter.

VOODOO AND HOME GRAND ADVANTAGE - GRAND FINAL

As DOS has pointed out in the BOX SEAT, the TedSport KPIS and algorithm ratings of the two grand finalist teams have grown close. The bank from R14 is now at an impressive 49.2% ROI. TedSport’s engagement with evaluating and predicting team performance, current and future, extends to analysis of the voodoo effect of a home ground advantage. 

Voodoo is a type of magic which can sometimes wield power, sometimes merely pretend to be powerful.

Our logistics stats and able commentator, McLeod, was at the MCG game and said; All of the media chatter at the G about the bye being a disadvantage was proven to be just dribble, with Adelaide and Richmond both bursting out of the blocks.

That’s voodoo. It’s obvious that the pre-final bye is sorcery crap provided by the cult marketing and sales of the AFL dummy minds. What wasn’t crap voodoo was the people’s power, generated by the home ground advantage. The intensity of feelings experienced at both the Adelaide Oval and the MCG supported the at-home teams, Crows and Tigers, winning a grand final berth. More measurable aspects of home ground advantage also demand consideration. 

On average it’s likely the home team can get a 10% scoring average. The percentage varies according to circumstances. First and foremost, is the home or away a good or poor team? How much travel is incurred by the home or away team? Climatic conditions? And above all but most elusive, what is the atmosphere and attitude among the players and their supporters dominating the home or away?  

The emotional pitch of each team’s supporters and their players will tell at the first bounce of the MCG grand final. Adelaide will no longer have the advantage of the home ground and Richmond will not be buoyed by an overwhelmingly vociferous Tiger army. The prelim finals of Adelaide and Richmond had significant voodoo advantages. Now, TedSport says the Crows v Tigers at the MCG will likely balance 50/50 on both accounts. 

It is possible, following their respective prelim final, that some of the players feel deflated. Coaches, media experts, and fans who reckon they know the minds of each player spin voodoo crap. Last season’s grand final resulted in the Bulldog’s win, defying the general expectation that, the Swans in quarters one and four would easily deflate the young Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Tedsport’s scoring rate and KPIS indicated the Bulldogs had a good chance of winning the flag. 

This season there are two aspects that could either go either way - climate and Rance. Travel will be much the same for both teams. (Adelaide will have a minor travel issue from airport to airport, under an hour, a trip the players are accustomed to.)

Wind, rain, and player congestion can have a significant influence on goal scoring rates. During the prelim finals the opportunist goal players were their team’s best   - Betts & Cameron for the Crows (7 goals) and Rioli & Himmelberg for the Tigers (8 goals). So far the weather promises to be reasonable but the player congestion will continue. Which means the goal opportunists are likely to have a good time. But why do Rance and his support team defenders appear to me so crucial?

During the prelim final the Giants were continually peppering their F50m zone. It was Rance and his defender mates who were repelling GWS goal chances and then rebounding into the Tiger’s attacking zone. The Crows will continue peppering goal opportunities and it will be Rance doing the repelling and rebounding again.

During Adelaide’s prelim final the entire Crows’ home ground advantage wiped out the Cats’ chances. We are not so sure they will do it again against the Tigers. TedSport expects a remarkable grand final a 50/50 split.

MCLEOD HAS SOMETHING TO SAY - FINALS WK3

I was at the G prelim final and the Tiger fans were amazing in what was a black & yellow letter day for the Richmond football club. All of the media chatter about the bye being a disadvantage was proven just dribble, with Adelaide and Richmond both bursting out of the blocks.

A great result for kitty again with all three bets coming up; kitty now stands at $4923 profit ROI of 49.2% since R14. 

ADELAIDE VS GEELONG

The TedSport algorithms have been steadfastly rating Adelaide as the best team in the competition for 23 of the past 25 weeks. Geelong's costly slip-up versus Richmond has seen the band of brilliant Cats having to travel to the Adelaide home Oval. Even the sturdiest of humans struggles to play or umpire his best against that volume of noise. It adds up to an Adelaide win by two or three goals.

Adelaide are rated in the top 3 for TedSport kick, transition and midfield ratings. Combine that with their dynamic forward line and it is a frightfully good outfit. Before the finals series started, TedSport rated Adelaide as the clear premiership favourite, because they were the first team since Carlton of 95 to attract favourable odds at the beginning of the finals series.

Media experts had identified the newly founded bye as some sort of bogeyman after one year of results. Adelaide showed no ill effects from the additional rest, bursting out of the blocks with two goals in the opening two minutes. They then controlled the first quarter with their elite disposal, decision making and run, meaning they were able to slice through Geelong‘s defensive structure. They went into the first break five goals ahead. After giving up the first couple of goals of Q2, Geelong attempted to mount a fight back as Danger started winning clearances and kicking goals, but they were never able to get within 4 goals of the superior Crows.

The second half, for a pie-floater fanatic, was one to savour.  Charlie Cameron, normally the Robin to Eddie Betts’ Batman, took the lead kicking 5 and bringing in a mark of the year contender as the Crows cruised away to a 10 goal win and booked their first GF since the back to back teams of the late 90s.

Adelaide dominated the TedSport metrics, winning the kick rating by 74, with Rory Laird and Atkins launching attacking forays off the HB line. The Crow’s midfield outshone the more vaunted Geelong mids by 26.  The Crouch bros again lead the way and had a transition rating advantage of 13 with T. Lynch and Seedsman providing great connection to the dynamic forwards lead by Charlie.

Adelaide fans will start their journey east in the knowledge that they are cheering on the best performed team all year, and one that is firing on all cylinders.

RICHMOND VS GWS GIANTS

The Giants touching up a tired Eagle’s team has plenty of punters and media experts again buying into the orange tsunami and the propoganda of the AFL-directed Giant premiership glory. We've been combing through the numbers, and we still don't trust them. West Coast managed to bust through their midfield more often than a good team defence should allow - not the stuff of premiers. 

Again the bogey bye played trickster; the apparition of the Tiger train stuck at the station simply failed to occur. Like the well-rested Adelaide, the Tiger train powered away from the station with no signal faults, kicking two goals in the first two minutes sending their adoring Tiger army into rapture.

The Giants actually handled the occasion and the crowd very well from that point. Wrestling back control and outplaying the Tigers for most of the first half as their midfield, the Giants got on top, lead by Ward, Kelly, Coniglio and running man Scully. Although both teams were battling to mount any real scoreboard pressure, they entered the long break with just 5 goals apiece and plenty of behinds.

The Giants were down a prime mover in Shiels, who was seeing stars after a contest with Richmond captain Cotchin. The Giant’s midfield wasn’t able to withstand the Tiger onslaught in Q3 when the opportunist Tiger small forwards stepped up to the plate.

The Tigers cleverly played Dustin Martin forward of the ball for plenty of the second half, while Daniel Rioli, channeling his cousin Cyril with a career best performance, created havoc in the Tiger forward line creating goals out of what would be generously considered half chances!

When Dusty banana-ed through his third successive goal in the first minute of the fourth quarter, the Tiger dream was a reality …  they were out to a six goal lead and the Tiger army was roaring.

The TedSport KPIs indicate an evenly fought contest, with Richmond having a slight advantage of +5 in kick and +1 in transition but with the Giants controlling the midfield and actually having the edge in F50 entries by 1.

It was the Tiger small forwards’ ability to convert the half chances into goals that was the difference in the end, Dusty and D.Rioli combining for seven goals while the Giant’s mercurial forwards StevieJ and T.Greene were unable to hit the scoreboard. 

We forecast GWS will revert to its season mean of good but not quite premiership standard. Richmond has a more solid claim to victory here, with the ability to manipulate game speed and Dusty Martin ready to borrow a line from the Giants' song and make them quake in their boots. Back Richmond head-to-head and with the -9.5 handicap, and in the fine MCG twilight we'll have a small punt on a high scoring game, for a Richmond game that is!

WHY TEDSPORT IS SUPPORTING THE TIGERS - PRELIM FINAL

Pre and in-game, TedSport provides our subscribers with unique KPIS, a Stake Calculator and algorithms. Since R14 the bank has an impressive 46% ROI. The best team ratings available combined with the recommend odds are on offer and our punters get profits well beyond the market.

TedSport’s unique BOX SEAT and KPIS rate the Tigers v Giants at a 70% to 30% chance, a decided No to Super Tracker’s chosen, the Royal GiantsOf public and subscriber interest is the economy of TedSport’s KPIS and algorithms compared to the massive data of the Super Tracker. We have elected to support the Tiger’s prelim final against the privileged AFL’s corporate choice, the Royal GWS Giants.

 DOS explainsAdd the awesome truth of GWS's prodigious talent, as seen against the tired Eagles veterans on Saturday night, to the mythology of AFL-directed premiership glory. To most punters and media it seems like all the Giants have to do is turn up at the MCG to have a even shot at the Grand Final.

We've been combing through the numbers, and we still don't trust them. West Coast managed to bust through their midfield more often than a good team defence should allow, but the Giants had all the answers at either end. GWS will revert to its season mean. This is not the stuff of premiers.

Richmond has a more solid claim to victory here, with the ability to manipulate game speed and Dusty Martin ready to borrow a line from the Giants' song and make them quake in their boots. Back Richmond head-to-head and with the -9.5 handicap, and in the fine MCG twilight we'll have a small punt on Total Over 160.

We are not claiming this as a ‘David versus Goliath’ match. We also respect the GWS players and coaches as elite performers. Tom Scully is an outstanding player, but sadly, he has become a poster boy on behalf of the AFL profiteers.  

The Super Tracker plus the Pressure Points provides no third party or public verification of their data and predictions. (Herald Sun, Sept 18). It gives instead brilliant advertising sales. The Royal GWS Giants are apparently the #1 ‘run and stun’ distance team of the competition, averaging 292.55. Of the eight finalists the Tigers are a sore #7 @ 274.19. Isn’t that a WOW?

And of course the afl.com.au/stats offer the Giants $2.45 to Tigers $1.58. Meanwhile, the TedSport target odds recommend GWS @ $3.74 to Richmond @ $1.47. Generally, we are not keen on advising punters to bet on favourites but in this case it’s a Yes, thanks.

Our support for the Tigers is not swayed by the emotions we may have for a particular footy club. Rather, we are moved by the independence of the Tigers compared to the corporate branding of the GWS.

At the backend is Rance and his support defenders. At the belly is Cotchin skipper including Dusty who goes anywhere, and at the front is an improved Jack Jump. While TedSport sees the Tigers have a 70% chance, do not underrate the Giants to lose. The Royal Giants have a fair chance of 30% and +19 point handicap. A base of 30% is achievable.

The power of emotion adds uncertainty and can change the odds. Before a game and during the game, the yellow slash of the Richmond jumper might conjure up a roller coast ride, teetering between exhilaration and despair. However, as throughout this season, the Tigers appear solid, thanks to their elite performers and player support. Please Tigers, Eat ‘Em Alive.

McLEOD HAS SOMETHING TO SAY - FINALS WK2

Another good week for the kitty with Tedsport again taking advantage of the over-reach prompted by the week 1 results. This time it was Geelong the top4 qualifying loser the masses dropped cold, while a non-top-4 team, Sydney, beating up on a mediocre team in Essendon, saw them outrageously backed for the semi-final. 

 Another $655 jumped into the TedSport kitty this week, to take profits since R14 up to $4622, or a 46% ROI to date.

GEELONG VS SYD SWANS

As sure as The Buddy Show haunts Essendon, the markets will haunt >span class="s2">top-four favourites that lose. Geelong is the latest victim of the wild overreaction that has brought us so many profits in the past decade. TedSport slightly favoured the Swans and expected the in-form team to win at the neutral MCG, butonly by seven points. Jumping on board, the Cats were atridiculous odds for a team that finished the season in second position.

The Cats played their trump early, starting with Danger up forward who duly kicked the Cats' first two goals of the game. There was no Sydney slaughter in the opening quarter this time. The danger in playing Danger forward was that Sydney’s big bodies would get on top in the middle, but they were found wanting on the night.

It was the ‘second string’ Cats who all stepped up – BlicavsMenegola, Duncan and the other Selwood - Scott -  andcontrolled the midfield battle. The lesser name Cats completely blanketed Kennedy and Parker and saw Geelong win the midfield battle by some 90 odd points, without much contribution from their dynamic duo.

Compounding their problems, the Swans backs were too preoccupied with Danger to be adventurous and create intercepts and rebound transitions. Sydney finished the game a woeful -22 for transition as they spent their time going backwards,coughing the ball up.

Geelong controlled the game by foot, having plenty of periods where they controlled the ball with some 0 rated treading water disposals before finding a way through the Swans unusuallysuspect defensive structures to create a scoring attack. The Cats finished the game with a kick advantage of 84 and a F50 advantage of 12. They thoroughly deserved their 10 goal win.

GWS GIANTS VS WC EAGLES

We cannot recall a semi-final in recent years that featured two teams so lucky to be there. West Coast doubled down on their % qualification being crunched by Port everywhere but on the scoreboard, yet a Shuey Shrug got them across the line and eliminated the desperately unlucky Power.

The Giants have been pretenders since June, coasting along after the rub of the green gave them some close wins and settling into the last of the double-chance slots. Somehow the best two teams are in the opposite finals bracket, so one of these flash-in-the-pan flawed clubs will have a chance to trip the Tigers next week. Taking a small flutter on the Eagles at the line and head-to-head, and some more on the total exceeding 164.5 if one of these dodgy defences gets blasted to pieces early on.

The Giants went small in this one, opting to replace Mummy and Cameron with two small runners and it worked with the Giants being too slick for the weary Eagles.

They missed some gilt-edged chances in the first quarter, while the Eagles took full advantage of the few chances they were able to grab which gave the fans a glimmer of hope that this might turn into a contest. But it was never on the cards, and when Stevie J turned back the clock in Q3 with four of his own goals it was another final blowout.

The Giants were much too slick with the ball, with their young quarter of midfield dynamos all finding form – Coniglio, Whitfield, Kelly and Shiels - who had the ball on a string. Their skillful play helped the Giants to finish +30 for the kick rating and +10 for transition.

The gun runners had most impact when entering the F50. They finished +17 for their F50 forays compared to the Eagles who were a woeful -8 for the game. Stevie J and Toby Greene took full advantage of the midfield dominance, with their smarts and positioning around goals seeing them combining for 9 goals.

The Giants easily accounted for the tiring Eagles, but a rested ferocious team of Tigers waits at the G and they will be much tougher opposition.

SCORING BOTTOMS

From last week’s post, The Hibernation of Gillon McLachlan, comes the query: Can scoring rise again is hard to estimate … or does the scoring rate continue to lie at the bottom of the scale? 

Gillon’s bum is even lower than expected. The four finals registered a scoring rate of 147.5 per game. In the same post, I argued:

‘The growing amount of field congestion, player rotations, collisions and disposals-treading-water appears to be a direct result of Gillon’s time as the AFL head. From seasons 2014 to 2017 the scoring had bottomed to 172.8 points per game. Prior to 2014 - 2010 the scoring rate was 182.6 points per game.’

This percolator filter of the scoring rate began during the seasons 2001 to 2009. Previously, from the 70s to the 90s, the scoring rates on average were close to 200pts per game. Only now have commentators begun to suspect that scoring bottom is a problem.   

Tim Lane, Age Newspaper September 11 acknowledged:

‘We've just had our lowest-scoring opening week of finals since the introduction of the final eight almost a quarter of a century ago.

Tackling is the most fundamental aspect of defence. If it isn't monitored closely enough by umpires, the spoiler will constantly prevail over the playmaker. And that means low scoring.’

While we like to read Mr Lane’s expert knowledge of footy, and support his contention that footy has become un-umpiring and uncivil, tackling and free kicks have minor influence on scoring rates.

Tackling on average is a poor indicator of the scores - 50:50 - for either team, winner or loser. The increased volume of tackling results from the growing field congestions and bench rotations. (Moreover, each contest is complicated by the psychic and mental ability of each participant.)

Free kicks are getting more bamboozled than ever. But like the tackling, on average of either side it’s 50:50 and a second poor indicator of team success and scoring rates. Prior to 1980 the free kicks averaged each season about 100 per game.

During 1980 to 1981, the umpire and media commentator, Harry Beitzel, then VFL Director of Umpiring, backed by coach Ron Barassi, reduced the umpire officialdom rate to 60 per game. Since then, it’s steadily edged to below 40 per game.

Fans, players, coaches, officials, media blokes such as Robbo the Tackler and Mr Lane, and even umpires, are all passionate about footy which means tackling is found desirable, free kicks should be few and, if possible, please let the game be true.

The problem of scoring bottom rating is not tackling or free kicks. Rather, it has come out of the heads of the AFL, media and agent honchos who have multiplied the weight given to the marketing and sales of fixtures, draft picks, video umpiring, bench rotations and meaningless statistics. A perusal of current afl.com.au/stats show that the heads of the AFL administration are about licensing and punters losing money rather their first duty, fair play for players and spectators.

Another generator of meaningless statistics is in the new Herald Sun Super Tracker, which the editorial claims is ‘correlated’. It might be fascinating and entertaining from the perspective of individual players. But it ain’t anything near the verified casual correlations required for rating team and scoring predictions.

For instance, according to the Super Tracker, following Wk1 of the finals, Port Adelaide and the GWS are the best ladder competition distance running teams of the season. During their respective qualification finals, each ran more distance than the Crows and the Eagles - and lost. 

Many IT engineers can tell us that the requirements the Super Tracker, combined with three other KPIS, have major costs plus technical glitches. Instead of the costs and glitches of the Super Tracker, why not invest in research and analysis of the statistics that could be verified in relation to the scoring bottom issues?

Meantime turn to tedsport.com/posts

MCLEOD HAS SOMETHING TO SAY – FINALS WK1

Wk1 of the finals gave a bit of everything.

The premiership favorite Adelaide flexed their muscle against the Giants.

Tigers and Cats played a scrappy, defensive contest on Friday that burst to life in the final quarter as yellow ‘n black tears of joy poured out of middle aged men dancing in the aisles as they roared their team on to a home Prelim.

Sydney bossed the Bombers.

The Eagles and Power played a classic that had everything, and again the Eagles somehow kept their season alive.

TedSport is happy, proceeding with another $500 jumping into the kitty, now sitting at profit of $3,967 since R14 from a personal bank of $10k from compared volumes ahead of the Herald Sun meaningless Super Tracker. 

GEELONG VS RICHMOND

TedSport couldn’t split them, tossing a coin for the Friday night qualifying final which Geelong ‘hosted’ the Tigers at the G. Both teams have impressed more as the season developed, earning their double chances. One of them will have to use it against Sydney next week, so this was going to be THE critical match of Finals Week One.

It was a high intensity, defensive opening quarter that saw the Tigers with the edge but unable to capitalise on their dominance. Some gilt-edged misses kept the Cats in the contest, despite failing to kick a major of their own.

Q2 was more of the same, with Richmond harassing the Cats until they coughed up the ball. But again the Tigers failed to profit from their dominance, only managing one goal in the quarter. Geelong finally kicked their first goal of the game at the 25min mark of Q2, and Danger duly doubled their tally right as the half-time siren sounded. The Tigers controlled the game, primarily by stifling Geelong’s ability to transition the ball, but they were only 1 goal ahead at the half time break.

Early in Q3, Geelong finally grasped a bit of control to see the game all square half-way through the quarter but the Tiger army burst to life, kicking 10 of the final 11 goals of the game to roar into a home prelim final at the G. The stats show they thoroughly deserved victory, winning the kick rating by 70 and keeping Geelong to a transition rating of -45. The Cats simply couldn’t move the ball forward with any fluency.

The Tigers were also great when moving the ball inside F50, with a +12 advantage here as they were able to take 18 marks to just 5 for the Cats inside their F50.

SYD SWANS VS ESSENDON

A baptism of fire awaits the Bombers at the SCG if they are to register their first finals win since 2004. While Sydney is almost the best team in the league — and certainly the best credentialed ever to finish sixth — a line of five goals is probably overrated. We expected the punters to continue to pile money into Sydney and took a little nibble at a line of six goals before the bounce.

After a relatively even Q1, the Swans flexed their muscle in Q2 banging on 10 goals in a bloodbath. Essendon had no answers, and were lucky that the Swans coasted to the line in the second. The Swans won the kick rating by 114, keeping the Dons in the red for transition giving up just 32 inside 50s and only 5 marks … while they took 19 marks inside their F50. The Swans move on to another clash with the Cats. They will be hoping for another 7 goal opening quarter as before in their two recent victories against the Cats.

PORT ADELAIDE VS WC EAGLES

West Coast played its second consecutive elimination final after winning its effective elimination final in style on Sunday. Anything more is a bonus in what has been a generally mediocre year for the Eagles. TedSport would usually back most teams to snuff them out on the eastern side of the Nullarbor, but the Power hardly inspires confidence when the heat is on.

This game had it all, a quick start from the away team to quiet the home crowd, a stirring fight back by the home team, momentum swings galore in Q4, contentious goal reviews and desperate acts in the final minutes when both sides couldn’t be separated.

Extra time was added, and the bookies set some crazy prices, offering 2.25 for an Eagle’s victory, setting up some arbitrage opportunities for the keen punter. The extra time proved ballistic. The game climaxed in a Shuey shot after the siren, which he duly nailed. Suddenly the Eagle’s year is spluttering to life.

After a slow start, Port realised they were going to battle to kick their way past McGovern and the WC HBF line. They opted instead to run and gun in, transitioning the ball with quick HB chains before trying to kick over the HB to Dixon and Co. up forward. This tactic worked well and, despite losing the kick rating stat, Port dominated the transition rating, finishing up over 50 ahead. WC finished badly in the red.

Port were able to turn their transition dominance into 10 more scoring opportunities with advantageous balls inside their F50, but unfortunately were unable to capitalise on them, kicking 10.16 to the Eagle’s much more accurate 12.6. Port have all off-season to kick themselves about their poor kicking for goal, while the Eagles fly on to a contest with a spluttering Giant’s team.

McLEOD HAS SOMETHING TO SAY – THE FINALS

McLeod says:

A great result last night, verifying the TedSport system of ratings. As we have seen before, punters over-reacted a player not being named and to the fact that Adelaide should be clear favourites for the flag. Still, our odds were favourable.

 Hence a great little boost to the TED kitty, which has pushed above 40% ROI, one of our biggest recommended stakes of the year.

 Game review below:

 Crows v Giants

TedSport had identified the first final of 2017 as a good place to splurge up to 10% of your bankroll. Adelaide is a few goals better than GWS, as it had proved time and time again through the year.

At the famously hostile Adelaide Oval, TedSport expected the underrated Don Pyke's Crows to breeze into a Preliminary Final and, when the markets opened, placed some big bets head-to-head and at the -14.5 handicap.

The big news in the lead-up to the game was team selection, and in particular the announcement that Adelaide’s prime midfield mover Sloane was ruled out of the game. The market over-reacted to the news resulting in Adelaide’s odds growing even more appealing to TedSport prior to the bounce.

 

The first quarter was all Adelaide, with the Crouch boys controlling the midfield and instigating some slick ball movement that had the Giants chasing tails. The Crows were much more effective by foot, +31 for the quarter in the kick rating, which enabled them to easily transition the ball finishing +12 for the quarter. The only thing keeping the Giants in the game was Adelaide’s poor play when entering F50; they finished -3 for the quarter. The Crows failed to take full advantage of the arm-chair ride provided by the Crouch boys.

Quarter two was more of the same, with the added bonus of some Eddie magic up forward. Adelaide continued to be much slicker of foot, and also turned back the clock with some deft knock-ons recalling the “Crow Throw” of the 90s. Again they dominated the transition rating.

The Crows moved the ball forward, a bit like the Dog's tumble ball last year, which they combined with the “Crow Throw” and some great ball use by foot. With Eddie doing what Eddie does Best up forward, and the Crow’s forwards finishing off the good work of the midfield, they had blown the game apart and went into the half time sheds 44 points to the good, with the not so gigantic Giants stuck on a measly one goal.

The second half was a non-event as the Crows did enough to hold the Giants at bay. Their early dominance on the back of daring attacking transition aided by slick ball use by foot and the “Crow Throw” overwhelmed the Giants.