METRICS THAT COUNT

Abstract

The metrics of TedSport are based on a fundamental principle; It ain’t no point winning the ball unless it is put to good effect.

Thus, our program bypasses heaps of stats such as hard balls won, tackles, pressure acts, and so forth. These spell ‘commitment’ but not necessarily ‘talent’.

How this works is a series of KPIS laid out for you to see and read.

We’ve given each of the indicators specific names ‘designed to measure pressure’. There are eight indicators of a Rating / Team Benefit scale system related to the Result.

The range of the scale top is The Missile; a disposal that can wet the opposition underpants. At the middle of the scale is the belly Treading Water.

And at the bottom of the scale is the Coach Killer disposal; that potentially shorten the career length of the coaches.

The range of the indicators are for you to enjoy, think, experience, and profit. And its also time to know HOW TO STAKE.

TedSport provides three crucial advantages.

  1. The KPIS & algorithm rating of teams is well ahead of the market and elsewhere.
  2. TED’S information and the STAKE CALCULATOR provides punters how to risk management betting games.
  3. Profit is the TedSport game. We relish observing and knowing how teams win, lose, or draw. We invest accordingly. We dislike gambling and losing money.

The STAKE CALCULATOR is the tool I use that TedSport built and published. It offers the best odds available combined with risk management investment and the Kelly system of betting spreads.

The best way to appreciate the STAKE CALCULATOR features and subscribe is to follow the HOW IT WORKS steps of the KPIS and Stake FAQ’S.

Ted Hopkins
Carlton premiership hero, founder and shaping of Champion Data, and now TedSport.

1. GET THIS, IT COUNTS

Our mission it to provide live data, special game comments and analysis, betting advice, dynamic stake calculator and KPI data reports. How we see the game is there ain't no point winning the ball unless it is put to good effect.

Playing a keeping-off game is okay in moderation, but counts for little if it isn't a setup for a team to launch a series of attacking disposals that hurt the opposition. Winning teams do both. Losers keep fluffing it up.

For pre-game and in-game result predictions, by far the best KPI set available is a team's duel ability to retain possession of the ball and put it into good attacking positions.

And if not in possession, how good is the team at derailing the opposition, where and when? These are the KPIs that really count.

To retain the ball (under pressure), attack,and derail an opponent takes talent and commitment. If it's there, we can assume sufficient stock is in play for a team to win the ball often enough to win a game.

The combination of adequate quantity and quality wins most times. Often teams at the bottom of ladder hit the ball and an opponent as hard as anyone or even better. What's missing is the talent to retain, attack, and derail when and where it counts.

Which is why the TedSport program bypasses heaps of stats such as hard balls won, tackles, pressure acts, and so forth. These spell ‘commitment' but not necessarily ‘talent'.

Hence, we focus on the KPIs that are the best of breed. The purpose is to achieve better prediction results on average so we can succeed in the betting market. TedSport features the bets laid by the AFL stats and analyst guru, Ted Hopkins. You can take his leading advice, or you can scan the KPIs and odds and apply the STAKE CALCULATOR to assess your risks and profit potential.

2. THE MEASUREMENTS

The TedSport KPIs are designed to measure pressure; the pressure that a delivery puts the opposition under. We acknowledge not every disposal can make an opponent wet the underpants. Some are strategic, some are innocuous, some are defensive savers, and some can easily ruin a team's chances of winning. Hence, the primary focus of our statisticians is to rate the effectiveness of each disposal. This boils down to the following criteria:

Rating / Team Benefit Result
+3 /High Missile
+2 /Medium Blowtorch
+1 /Low Standard
0 /Little or none Treading Water
Unrated Nothing disposals around a stoppage
-1 /Minor muck-up The Groan
-2 /Medium muck-up The Stomach Punch
-3 /Big much-up Coach Killer

Note: In all of the following metres gained combines the run and carry with the disposal distance, ie a player who runs 25m with a bounce and then hits up a short target 30m away is considered to have completed a long kick as the combined distance gained is 55m.

The Missile

The disposals that cause the most damage to the opposition, if a side can land plenty of missiles it will soon enough be game over. Disposals that qualify for the missile rating include:

The Blowtorch

Applying the blowtorch to the opposition over a prolonged period will result in plenty of scoreboard pressure. Blowtorch disposals are often when a player takes a risk that sets up the team for a scoring assault, or completes the chain in that ends in a regulation score. Disposals that qualify for the blowtorch rating include:

The Standard

Disposals when a player looks to complete their job without taking any real risk and not looking to apply ‘the blowtorch' to the opposition. Disposals that qualify for the standard rating include:

Treading Water

Disposals that are designed to simply maintain possession, with no attacking value at all. Strong teams use these disposals strategically before applying blowtorch disposals, whilst poor performing teams often get caught Treading Water before succumbing to pressure and turning the ball over. Disposals that qualify for the treading water rating include:

Unrated Disposals

The TedSport rating system ignores all disputed disposals that occur at stoppages. The TedSport rating system looks to identify a ‘Trigger Point', which is the first clear disposal that leads to one team making a clean break-away from the congested stoppage area. All scuffed kicks, HBs that don't clear the congestion are unrated.

The Groan

Minor stuff up disposals, where the player could and should have done better, and often result in teams supporters groaning that they don't want the ball in player X's hands. Disposals that qualify for the groan rating include:

The Stomach Punch

Punch Major disposal errors that result in a direct turn over. These have the feeling as if the wind has been knocked from the team who had possession. Disposals that qualify for the stomach punch rating include:

The Coach Killer

Major disposal errors that result in a direct scoring opportunity, the instances of play potentially shorten the career length of the coaches. Disposals that qualify for the coach killer rating include:

In real game time, as each of the above rated disposals occurs on the ground, it is entered by the statistician on a computer tablet. The data feeds instantly into a TedSport algorithm that lies under the covers, which calculates a team's chances of winning.

To simplify the range of what the data points tells us, the TedSport web-app shows four team advantages or losses – volume and quality of kicks, successful or failed ball transit from zone to zone, entry into the F50m zone value, and who is winning the disposal battle between the arcs.

The kick advantage category features the volume and quality of attacking kicks, circular (retention), and cock-ups. Transit rates is a team going somewhere up-field, nowhere, or backwards. Entry into the attacking zone highlights the potential to score as good, useless, or coming back the wrong way. The midfield is about having control, neutralising, or limping.